Hart Trophy Race: Is McDavid Pulling Away or Can MacKinnon Close the Gap?
As the NHL hits the Olympic break, we analyze the MVP race. Connor McDavid is nearing 100 points, but Nathan MacKinnon's goal-scoring is keeping it close.
Analysis Desk
Hart Trophy Race: Is McDavid Pulling Away or Can MacKinnon Close the Gap?
The NHL has officially paused for the 2026 Winter Olympics, giving us a perfect opportunity to look at the hardware. While the stars are chasing gold in Milan, the race for the Hart Memorial Trophy back home is reaching a fever pitch.
As of February 6, 2026, two names have separated themselves from the pack, but a few dark horses are making things interesting.
The Frontrunner: Connor McDavid (Edmonton Oilers)
Stats: 96 Points (35G, 61A) in 52 Games
It feels like a broken record, but Connor McDavid is doing Connor McDavid things. He is currently on pace for nearly 150 points, and his play-making has reached a new level of efficiency. What makes his case even stronger this year is the Oilers' resurgence in the Pacific Division. McDavid isn't just scoring; he's carrying a team that struggled early in the season back into a home-ice playoff spot.
The Challenger: Nathan MacKinnon (Colorado Avalanche)
Stats: 40 Goals, 88 Points in 51 Games
If anyone can stop the McDavid train, it’s Nathan MacKinnon. MacKinnon became the first player to hit the 40-goal mark this season, doing so just before the break. His explosive speed and volume shooting make him the most dangerous player in the league on any given night. If MacKinnon can lead the league in goals while staying within 10 points of McDavid, the "value to his team" argument might lean in his favor, especially given Colorado's injury woes.
The Dark Horse: Nikita Kucherov (Tampa Bay Lightning)
Stats: 92 Points (31G, 61A) in 53 Games
Quietly (as quiet as 90+ points can be), Nikita Kucherov is right there. He is currently tied with McDavid for the league lead in assists. Kucherov’s importance to the Lightning cannot be overstated—without him, Tampa might be fighting for a Wild Card spot instead of comfortably sitting in the Atlantic's top three.
What to Watch After the Break
The 19-day Olympic break will be a massive factor in the Hart race.
- Health: Will the stars return from Milan healthy? An injury in the gold medal game could end an MVP campaign.
- Momentum: Historically, players who have a great Olympic tournament often return to the NHL on a "scoring heater." Look at the Olympic Bump for more on this.
- The 100-Point Race: McDavid is only 4 points away from the century mark. Expect him to hit it in his first or second game back on February 25.
Our Prediction
If the season ended today, McDavid takes home his fourth Hart. However, MacKinnon’s goal-scoring pace is historic. If he hits 60 goals, we might see a split vote.
Stay updated with our NHL Standings Analysis to see how these MVP candidates are helping their teams in the standings.