Understanding Advanced Stats for Fantasy Success

Understanding Advanced Stats for Fantasy Success

Advanced statistics have revolutionized how we analyze hockey, and smart fantasy managers are using them to find hidden value.

Key Advanced Metrics

Corsi (CF%)

Corsi measures shot attempts (shots on goal, missed shots, blocked shots) for and against.

Fantasy Application:

• Players with high Corsi are often due for positive regression
• Teams with strong Corsi tend to score more goals

Fenwick (FF%)

Fenwick is like Corsi but excludes blocked shots, focusing on unblocked shot attempts.

Why It Matters:

• Better predictor of future scoring
• Accounts for shot quality

Expected Goals (xGF)

Expected goals estimates how many goals a player or team "should" score based on shot quality and location.

Fantasy Value:

• Identifies players scoring above/below expectations
• Helps predict future performance

Using Advanced Stats in Fantasy

Finding Value

Look for players with:

• High xGF but low actual goals (due for positive regression)
• Strong Corsi but low point totals (opportunity for improvement)
• Increasing advanced stats (trending upward)

Avoiding Overvalued Players

Be cautious of players with:

• Low xGF but high goal totals (likely to regress)
• Poor underlying numbers (unsustainable production)

Practical Applications

Waiver Wire

Use advanced stats to identify players before they break out.

Trade Decisions

Advanced stats can help you identify buy-low and sell-high candidates.

Lineup Decisions

When choosing between similar players, advanced stats can break the tie.

Tools and Resources

Several websites provide advanced stats:

• Natural Stat Trick
• MoneyPuck
• Evolving Hockey

Conclusion

Advanced stats aren't everything, but they're a powerful tool in your fantasy arsenal. Combine them with traditional scouting and you'll have a significant edge.